The most common mistake studios make during soft launch is comparing their D1 retention and CPI to a generic industry average. The threshold that matters is the one specific to your genre — because genre determines LTV potential, which determines what CPI is viable, which determines whether your UA can ever be profitable.
This guide covers the benchmarks PixyLiv uses internally across 11 mobile game genres, updated for 2026.
Soft Launch Benchmark Table by Genre
| Genre | D1 Retention (min) | D7 Retention (min) | CPI Ceiling | Hook CTR (min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puzzle | 42% | 18% | $2.00 | 8.0% |
| Match-3 | 40% | 16% | $2.20 | 7.5% |
| Casual | 35% | 14% | $1.80 | 7.0% |
| Hyper-Casual | 30% | 8% | $0.60 | 9.5% |
| Runner | 32% | 10% | $1.20 | 8.5% |
| Arcade | 30% | 10% | $1.00 | 8.0% |
| Sort | 35% | 12% | $1.50 | 8.0% |
| Idle/Tycoon | 28% | 12% | $2.50 | 7.0% |
| Strategy | 33% | 14% | $4.50 | 6.5% |
| RPG | 35% | 16% | $5.00 | 6.0% |
| RPG Anime | 38% | 18% | $5.50 | 6.5% |
These thresholds are practitioner-cited ranges based on published research, not guarantees. Your actual viable CPI depends on your D7, D30, ARPDAU, and payback window.
How to Read Your Soft Launch Numbers
D1 Retention
D1 retention measures what percentage of players return to your game on the day after install. It is the primary signal of whether your first session created a habit. A low D1 almost always points to a first session design problem — the game did not leave the player with enough reason to come back.
D7 Retention
D7 retention measures players returning 7 days after install. More useful as a ratio against D1 than as an absolute number. The D7/D1 ratio is one of the most diagnostic numbers in soft launch.
CPI (Cost Per Install)
CPI viability is entirely genre dependent. The ceiling is set by how much a player in that genre is worth — their LTV. A Hyper-Casual player generates far less revenue than an RPG player, so the viable CPI ceiling is much lower.
Hook CTR
Hook CTR measures what percentage of people who see your ad click on it. A low Hook CTR means your creative is not stopping the scroll. This is a creative problem, not a game problem.
The D7/D1 Ratio — The Most Diagnostic Number in Soft Launch
Divide your D7 by your D1. The result tells you where your retention problem is.
| D7/D1 Ratio | Diagnosis | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0.30 | FTUE problem | End of Day 1 session. Not creating a return habit. |
| 0.30 to 0.44 | Core loop problem | Days 2 to 5 engagement. Progression or streak mechanics. |
| 0.45 to 0.55 | Normal decay | Check D7 absolute value against genre benchmark. |
| Above 0.55 | Strong arc | Retention not the constraint. Focus on CPI and creative. |
The Two-Consecutive-Week Rule
One week above your D7 threshold is variance. Two consecutive weeks above threshold is a directional signal that your game is ready to scale UA spend. This rule comes from Matej Lancaric's Soft Launch Bible (2025) and is the standard practitioners use before recommending a scale decision.
What the Verdict Means
GO — All three metrics (D1, CPI, Hook CTR) clear the threshold for your genre. UA spend can scale with confidence.
ITERATE — One or more metrics below threshold. Identify which metric is failing and address it before scaling UA.
KILL — Multiple metrics significantly below threshold. The research suggests redirecting resources to a new prototype rather than continuing UA spend. This is not a verdict on the game quality — only on whether the current soft launch metrics justify scaling.
Sources
Research cited in this guide
- Lancaric, M. (2025). Soft Launch Bible 2025. lancaric.substack.com
- Traplight. (2022). D3/D1 Retention Framework.
- Seufert, E. (2024). ROAS Payback Methodology. mobiledevmemo.com
- AppsFlyer. (2025). Mobile Gaming Apps Report 2025.
Run your numbers against these benchmarks
PixyLiv compares your D1, CPI, and Hook CTR against these genre thresholds and returns a go/iterate/kill verdict in 3 minutes. Free. No subscription.
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